🏈 NFL
🏈 NFL Mathematical Predictions: Poisson Model
Statistical analysis based on Offensive/Defensive Efficiency and 2026 Power Rankings.
| Matchup | Exp. Points (λ) | Win Prob. % | Exp. Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills | 27 - 25 | 58% / 42% | -2.5 |
| Philly Eagles vs SF 49ers | 23 - 26 | 39% / 61% | +3.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans | 28 - 20 | 72% / 28% | -7.5 |
| Detroit Lions vs GB Packers | 30 - 27 | 56% / 44% | -3.0 |
💡 Insider Tip:
In the Chiefs vs Bills matchup, the Poisson distribution indicates a high probability of a score between 24 and 30 points for both teams. If the Over/Under line is set at 47.5, the model suggests a strong Over.